Thanksgiving dollar rally ahead of EU inflation

FX markets have shown greater volatility, with volumes higher across G10 space than we’d normally expect to see over the US Thanksgiving holiday. The Us dollar has reversed most of its 100-point demise following the weaker US data readings this week and as we await the EU CPI reading for November.

The much-awaited decision from OPEC ignited downside pressure on the CAD and the NOK as the committee (as expected) decided not to cut oil production, which obviously has implications for countries on the brink of deflation. But it appeases those countries looking to stimulate their economies as importers of black gold.

Data out of Japan overnight was mixed. The CPI data came in slightly weaker at 2.9% versus the consensus of 3% as retail sales firmly beat expectations at 0.2% against the forecast of -0.6% with retail sales bang on at 1.4% with the Japanese jobless rate falling to 3.5%. This inspired the Nikkei to rally 1.23% as USD/JPY trades back on the 118 handle despite the month-end selling flow sighted from exporters.

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Read the full article on CityIndex by clicking here.

Author: Neil Looker, cief forex dealer at CityIndez.

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Oil Tumbles to 4-Year Low Before OPEC, Pulling Down Krone

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Oil slid to a four-year low amid speculation OPEC will refrain from cutting output at today’s meeting, dragging down shares of energy companies, Gulf-region stocks, and the Norwegian krone. Government bonds rose, with yields in Europe falling to record lows.

West Texas Intermediate crude tumbled 2.1 percent to $72.15 a barrel at 11:07 a.m. London time, a fourth-straight decline. While the Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.2 percent after data showed record-low German unemployment, a gauge of energy producers slid 1.3 percent. Qatar and Oman led stocks lower in the Gulf region, and Norway’s krone weakened against all its 16 major counterparts. France’s 10-year yield fell to an all-time low of 1.006 percent.

Representatives from the 12-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are meeting in Vienna, with oil prices mired in a bear market. The 27 percent drop this year has pulled the Stoxx 600 Oil & Gas Index down 6.5 percent, weakened currencies of commodity-producing nations and damped inflation, helping fuel a rally in fixed-income assets. Germany will release consumer-price data today as investors weigh whether theEuropean Central Bank will step up stimulus. Most U.S. markets are closed for Thanksgiving.

“OPEC is the main event,” Michael McCarthy, chief strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney, said by phone. “The Saudis’ actions over the past month quite clearly indicate to the market that OPEC is unlikely to agree to production cuts, or if they do, the market will doubt the intent to deliver.”

Read the full article on Bloomberg by clicking here.

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FX Celebs in Spanish on Insight by WFX


Insight by WFX has been able to put together a great team of international authors for our blog: Greg Michalowski, James Chen, Ashraf Laidi, Boris Schlossberg, Kathy Lien, who publish exclusively in English in other media. Greg and James are technical profiles. Greg, who joined the ForexLive team a few months ago, is well known for the depth of his analyses and his peculiar way to look into the “market”: his buyers vs. sellers battles, and his “trade between goal posts”,  “attacking trends”, and “defining and limiting risk” strategies. James Chen became widely known by his high probability trading that made him one of the most respected authors of the FX world. James is  a member of the FX strategists team at City Index, same as his colleague Ashraf Laidi (in the photo), a famous fundamental analyst with a great insight on relating purely technical aspects to the market to geopolitics. And what can we say about BKForex founders Boris Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien. Their unique way to analyze everyday life and relate it with market action is already well known by everyone interested in the FX scene.

We are very happy and proud to be able to share all these different views with our Spanish-speaking audience.

Wordwide FX is also making arrangements with other well-known authors like FXDD’s Roberto D’Ambrosio de FXDD and ForexLive’s Adam Button, Mike Paterson and Ryan Littlestone. We hope to announce them on our blog very soon.

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Boris Schlossberg in Spanish on Insight by WFX


Good news from Wordwide FX. We have the pleasure to announce a new author for our blog Insight by WFX: Boris Schlossberg, one of the most popular FX gurus in Europe and America. Boris’ approach to market analysis is innovative and unique, since he often starts with a real-life anecdote to develop a whole approach to trading and the markets. We are really looking forward to bring his approach to our Spanish-speaking audience.

Mr. Boris Schlossberg is Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management and Co-Founder of Widely known as a leading foreign exchange expert, Boris has more than 20 years of financial market experience. His career on Wall Street began over 2 decades ago with Drexel Burhnam Lambert and during that time he has traded a variety of financial instruments, from equities and options to stock index futures and foreign exchange. In 2004, Boris joined FXCM and helped start the firm FX Education initiative. In 2005, he joined the research team as Senior Currency Strategist and provided fundamental and technical analysis to the company’s global network of individual and institutional customers, as well as financial media outlets. In 2007, while still at FXCM, Boris started BKForex Advisors with Ms. Kathy Lien. A year later, Boris joined Global Futures & Forex Ltd as Director of Currency Research where he provided research and analysis to clients and managed a global foreign exchange analysis team with Kathy Lien. Mr. Schlossberg is a weekly contributor to CNBC’s Squawk Box and a regular commentator for Bloomberg radio and television. His daily currency research is widely quoted by Reuters, Dow Jones and Agence France Presse newswires and appears in numerous newspapers worldwide. Mr. Schlossberg has written for SFO magazine, Active Trader and Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities. He is the author of Technical Analysis of the Currency Market and Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Beat Wall Street at its Own Game, both of which are published by Wiley.

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Bloomberg: Oil Volatility Here to Stay Regardless of OPEC Decision

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Whatever the outcome of tomorrow’s OPEC meeting, options traders are betting on oil-price swings.

That’s because the decision from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries isn’t likely to make much difference. Slowing global demand and a U.S. shale-drilling boom has created a glut that won’t fade any time soon, said Torbjoern Kjus of DNB ASA in Norway.

Half of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect a cut in production at the meeting in Vienna tomorrow; the rest don’t see a deviation from OPEC’s 30 million barrel-a-day target. Yet an index tracking expectations for moves in oil prices reached the highest ever versus a gauge that measures volatility in equities, according to Bloomberg data going back to May 2007.

“We are still talking about a market that is 2-million barrels-a-day oversupplied in the first half of next year,” said Kjus, a senior oil market analyst at DNB. “Even if OPEC delivers on net production cuts, we don’t think that will be enough. We are not talking enough to turn this market around.”

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Crude Oil Volatility Index, which tracks the cost of options on an exchange-traded fund tracking the commodity, has more than doubledfrom a low this year in June. The CBOE Volatility Index measuring options prices on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has advanced 14 percent in the same period.


Read the full article on Bloomberg by clicking here.

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