USB forex strategist Beat Siegenthaler says the gold initiative appears to have a low chance of success and that we might get some clue of that at the next poll.
If the “yes” vote fades in the poll then the issue will fade ahead of the referendum he says. If the “yes’s” increase then we will likely see pressure on EUR/CHF.
Which ever way the vote goes he doesn’t see many scenarios where the SNB would remove the peg.
- Removing the floor would require political discussions and a parliamentary decision
- SNB unlikely to impose negative rates, unless gold vote goes against them but would be very cautious of doing so
- SNB may hope that intervention is sufficient but says any big jump won’t last, until negative rates are introduced
- Biggest impact could be on EUR crosses, bonds and equities rather than EUR/CHF
- SNB may be forced to enter somewhere at or above 1.2010
EUR/CHF has made a new low today, by only a fraction of a pip I think. Yesterday’s low was 1.20218. Today it’s 1.20213. Makes all the difference to the charts don’t you know
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